LIghter will launch as the most profitable L2 & get a ton of "aligned" bidding from the Ethereum community This is why Lighter is cheap at $1.5B even though I'm bearish on Lighter post TGE Hyperliquid was able to grow post TGE because the perp DEX space was relatively young & able to grow massively It had the best product & so the HYPE TGE just acted as an S-tier marketing campaign for it to continue to dominate in a rising tide If Lighter does have the best product or fee model or it turns out users do care about alignment or exit hatches, it's possible their TGE can do the same for them But I don't see many people saying they have the best product Their other path to growth is perp DEXes growing massively as a whole (but this doesn't seem as clear to me as it was for HL in Nov 2024) Lighter has done well til now by dangling a juicy carrot to many donkeys But you only have 1 carrot to dangle before you must be measured on your product/liquidity/moat Because once the donkey has tasted the carrot & realized it is a regular carrot & not as big or sweet as it seemed, the donkey will not fall for a 2nd carrot & will seek carrots from other hands